Affective forecasting (or emotional estimation, whatever you want to call it) is an evil thing. Ok, at least in business — because it lets you make decisions which are often irrational and counterproductive.
So, here is what affective forecasting is:
human beings aren’t very accurate in predicting their emotional reactions to future events
In plain English, what does this mean?
Take for example lottery winners. Statistically speaking, the vast majority are financially worse off 5 years after winning the lottery. Yet almost anybody you ask is adamant that “this wouldn’t happen to me”. In other words: they completely understimate their emotional reaction to such an event.
What does that mean for my business?
Despite the fact that we call ourselves “professional” (I can count the true professionals I know on one hand) and hence make all decisions based in or on logic, we are in reality extremely emotional creatures. And not being able to predict my emotional reaction to a future event is extremely limiting.
Here is an example of affective forecasting in action: say we do a marketing test on a small sample, it comes back with great numbers.
What happens next?
More often than not, the spreadsheet comes out, the skyrocketing projections are made … et voila… out comes the champagne. We’ll be rich before you know it.
What happened is that what we saw in the spreadsheet (positive outcome) completely swamped any concerns about a possible complete failure of the campaign at a larger scale (negative outcome). We simply do not see that we would react very badly (to losing lots of money) and hence consider this possbilitiy insignificant.
Or, even more common: you hire a person you really *like*. When you *like* them during the interview, it is virtually impossible for you to predict how you would react to them underperforming in the future for example.
Again, that possibility is discounted — “surely that wouldn’t happen” Yet the statistics tell a different story.
Moral of the story — or of “affective forecasting”: most businesses are not enough data-driven, at least when it comes to marketing and sales.
Don’t believe me?
Well, show me your stats what percentage of your sales are made during which contact (the first, the second, the …..) with a prospect.
See? The vast majority of businesses don’t even do such a simple thing …. and in the process are leaving a lot of money on the table.
Why?
You tell me











